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Are the Opinion Polls Accurate? Is the Voting Process Safe? Let's Take a Poll
As we approach election day, those who are dissatisfied with the current Administration are challenged. First they need to overcome the idea voiced by the President and Vice-President that a vote for candidate Kerry is a vote that will ensure a terrorist attack, and then that holding an opinion other that of the P & V-P is unpatriotic.
If you can get beyond that there are two major, commonly held perceptions that need to shift. Fortunately these challenges are not only interrelated, but may also have a common solution.
The first challenge is the opinion polls. Many of us simply don't believe they are accurate. It is necessary to demonstrate just how little support Bush has—and how unbalanced the opinion polls are—in order for people to regain the sense it is possible that things can be changed.
That idea may fly in the face of the current polls, but they sure don't go against the experience of many of us in this area, which is supposed to be a Republican stronghold. Where are all the Bush bumper stickers?
Perhaps more significant is that the current methodology pollsters use is finally being challenged. For one thing, the Gallup people blend the results of their polls to reflect their estimate that of those voting, 40% will be Republicans and 33% will be Democrats. This is done in all national and state polls. It is reported widely in the media, including the USA Today-CNN poll.
It's nothing new to wonder about the wording of how the questions are asked, i.e., do they skew the results in a certain direction? The CEO of Gallup has given financial support to the right wing agenda. Some other polls, not the ones the major media report, have found Kerry gaining ground. Some even suggest half the Republicans don't support Bush.
Even if you don't believe the polls and find a way to rationalize them away, they have their effect. I was talking to friends today who stated that as much as they believe the polls untrue, there is still the emotional drain when reading them. They do affect us. Some people are even wondered why they should bother to vote. It looks like Bush again.
The second challenge is the voting process. Far too many people have legitimate concerns about whether or not their votes will be counted. Should we send in absentee ballots? Should we conduct exit polls on voting day?
If we lose the first battle and don't show the groundswell disapproval there is with this president, it will be that much easier for voting machine manipulations to go undetected.
To discover what's really true some of us have decided to take a poll and find out. The hope is to demonstrate how deep and widespread this dissatisfaction and desire for change is, in a way that is obvious and cannot be denied.
The idea to make armbands, signifying that it is time for this Administration to be replaced. The symbolism of the colors and explanation is on the web site at wwww.yellowarmband.com. Basically it's a Bush inside the international symbol for forbidden—a red circle with a line through it.
People can print and hand out cards that explain to those who ask, what the armband means. It means we are not, under any circumstances, voting for Bush and that we're taking a poll about how others feel. It's not a debate. It's a poll.
If someone wants to wear one there is an instruction sheet that explains that wearing the armband is also a commitment to wear it at the voting booth, which will allow for an easy accounting at voting places on election day.
If 7 of 10 people walk into the polls wearing them it will be difficult to claim a 51-49 vote in the other direction. Just the threat of counting people with armbands might help prevent fraud.
There is a precedent for this type of action to show solidarity. During World War II, after Germany conquered a country, Jews were required to wear the Star of David to make them easily identifiable. In Denmark, the King announced that we would comply, but pointed out that there was the possibility that he could miss some Jews. His solution was to require everyone in the country to wear the Star. They did. Unlike other countries, Jews were not removed en masse from Denmark.
In India, under British rule, the followers of Ghandi were easily identifiable. They refused to wear the cloth from British mills and wore the locally grown muslin instead.
This synergy can also be seen when a local sports team goes to the playoffs. People wear team hats and shirts, and strangers talk and bond. If wearing armbands were commonplace, creating a powerful sense of community there's no telling where it could lead. The FBI might be puzzeled about who to intimidate next.
Bands have been ordered and will be sold at the website, but the idea is not to become a fulfillment house. Instructions will be there about how to create your own by downloading and printing the design or sending for some easy iron-on patches that require you to supply the cloth. The bottom-line is this is for those who want a new Administration. If there are hundreds of variations of armbands that might even be more powerful. It might better demonstrate the grass roots nature of this.
When telling people about the armbands we discovered a final, critical reason to pursue this: many people today are afraid to express their views. While some have said they want to wear the armband everywhere, others say they are afraid of retaliation.
This is incredibly sad and disheartening. This current political climate that intimidates people must change. People need to know they are not alone and they can participate without fear. If this could help some people gain the confidence to participate in the political process; and give them a means of recognizing and joining with others, it's worth trying.
I think we all need to regain the belief that in our democracy, individuals can and do make a difference. We're attempting to contact MoveOn, True Democracy and others to join in this. Go to www.yellowarmband.com for more information.
If the shoe fits, put it on your arm (an armband that is) and start a conversation with someone. Tell them you have the genuine curiosity that you would hope a pollster might have and you're taking a poll.
A lady I know has been wearing a button for the last month and says over 99% of the people comment positively. In San Diego? Yes! It might be fun.
If not now, when? If not us, who? Send us your results to print next month.
Have a Great Month,
Steve Hays
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